by Kevin Burton
Have you heard of the 37 percent rule?
It’s a method for making choices. I just heard of it Friday.
Say you need to decide which house to buy, which person to marry, which secretary to hire. Here’s how to go about making that decision, according to Jack Murtagh, writing in Scientific American:
“Imagine cruising down the highway when you notice your fuel tank running low. Your GPS indicates ten gas stations lie ahead on your route. Naturally, you want the cheapest option. You pass the first handful and observe their prices before approaching one with a seemingly good deal.”
“Do you stop, not knowing how sweet the bargains could get up the road? Or do you continue exploring and risk regret for rejecting the bird in hand? You won’t double back, so you face a now-or-never choice,” Murtagh writes. “What strategy maximizes your chances of picking the cheapest station?”
“Researchers have studied this so-called best-choice problem and its many variants extensively, attracted by its real-world appeal and surprisingly elegant solution.”
“The winning strategy is simple: Reject the first approximately 37 percent no matter what. Then choose the first option that is better than all the others you’ve encountered so far (if you never find such an option, then you’ll take the final one).”
“Amazingly, the optimal strategy results in you selecting your number one pick almost 37 percent of the time. Its success rate also doesn’t depend on the number of candidates. Even with a billion options and a refusal to settle for second best, you could find your needle-in-a-haystack over a third of the time.”
“The 37 percent rule is not some mindless, automatic thing. It’s a calibration period during which you identify what works and what does not,” writes philosophy teacher Jonny Thomson on bigthink.com. “From the rejected 37 percent, we choose the best and keep that information in our heads moving forward. If any subsequent options beat that benchmark standard, then you should stick with that option to get the best ultimate outcome.”
“Learning the 37 percent rule could improve your decision making, but be sure to double-check that your situation meets all of the conditions of the problem: a known number of rankable options presented one at a time in any order, and you want the best, and you can’t double back,” Murtagh cautions.
This all carries with it the whiff of science of course, with all the research, calibrations and calculations, mathematical acrobatics.
Nevertheless, I raise my hand in dissent to propose an alternative method for making good choices:
“Trust in the Lord with all your heart and do not lean on your own understanding. In all your ways acknowledge Him and He will make your paths straight” Prov. 3:5-6 NASB).
In a search for “what works and what does not,” wouldn’t you want to hear from the Creator of the universe, the One who made you? Would you choose God’s perfect knowledge of the past, present and future, or your flickering illusions?”
“Listen to counsel and receive instruction, that you may be wise in your latter days. There are many plans in a man’s heart. Nevertheless, the Lord’s counsel – that will stand” Prov. 19:20-21 NKJV).
With Thomson’s article comes an invitation to sign up for the “Smarter Faster newsletter.” I invite you to call on the Lord, open the Bible, be quiet, slow down and be sensitive to the leading of the Holy Spirit.
If you take your next 37 choices to God, long before you get that far you’ll be eager to take to Him, the next 63, and beyond!
“All the ways of a person are clean in his own sight, but the Lord examines the motives. Commit your works to the Lord and your plans will be established” (Prov. 16:2-3 NASB).
Were I to spend more time with the 37 percent rule than my short-article blog format allows, I am guessing there could be some nugget of merit in it. (Perhaps I could use it to select a running back or wide receiver to replace injured players on my fantasy football teams.)
But why not go to God first and allow His perfect will for you. Everything else will take care of itself, 100 percent of the time.
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